The most likely outcome of the economic turmoil triggered by the coup is a period of slow economic growth and joblessness, even as inflation rises and the value of the kyat continues to slide against the US dollar.
Senior General Min Aung Hlaing has attracted ridicule for airing grand development plans at a time when the economy is in crisis, but even the regime’s more rational economic goals are unlikely to be achievable.
A split in the Tatmadaw has until now been considered unlikely but a steady increase in defections and desertions since the coup amid plunging morale has some questioning whether unity can be maintained within the nation’s most powerful institution.
The recent talk of Myanmar being a “failed state” overlooks a potentially bigger issue: that the people of Myanmar do not share a sense of a united Myanmar identity despite decades of effort by military and civilian governments alike to cultivate one.
The Kayin State Border Guard Force has come under intense pressure from the Tatmadaw over its extensive, controversial business interests and there’s concern the ultimatum could trigger fresh hostilities in one of the country’s most war-torn areas.