EDITORIAL
Myanmar is reeling from a devastating earthquake but the regime cares more for its own survival.
While the people of Myanmar mourn the dead, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing is enjoying a bit of diplomatic sunshine.
Last week the junta chief visited Bangkok and shook hands with Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Indian PM Narendra Modi, on his first trip to a Southeast Asian country since ASEAN’s Five-Point Consensus was agreed in Jakarta two months after the 2021 coup. He wasn’t going to let a 7.7-magnitude earthquake get in the way of a photo-op.
He also seems more preoccupied with his battlefield enemies than the thousands of citizens buried under rubble. His April 2 ceasefire announcement was welcome but came with heavy caveats. If resistance groups try to “recruit or mobilise forces” or “engage in preparations” – as is generally done during ceasefires – then the military “will take necessary response measures”.
Clashes and airstrikes have continued and, while the circumstances are sometimes murky, the junta’s troops are clearly on hair-trigger mode, ready to ensure its survival at all costs. These troops have also, conspicuously, not been redeployed from the front lines to help with earthquake relief.
As shown in Frontier’s reporting, from Nay Pyi Taw, Mandalay and Sagaing, the bulk of responders have been poorly equipped volunteers, with some backing from junta-employed firefighters who also lack adequate tools. The far better resourced army has, for the most part, only deployed small bands of soldiers to protect high-profile buildings, escort visiting generals and clear up debris at major Buddhist sites. Mandalay locals say the soldiers have failed to prevent looting in the city.
Compare this to previous disasters. State media splashed photos of uniformed soldiers assisting in the aftermath of Typhoon Yagi last year, as well as Cyclone Mocha in 2023. The military’s severe loss of territory over the past year means these troops are now serving other priorities.
Numerous foreign rescue teams have pulled out survivors from some of the worst casualty sites, but in some cases have also had to follow the regime’s bidding. A Frontier reporter saw a Thai army team at work at collapsed civil service housing in Nay Pyi Taw, while other residential quarters of the capital were largely left to fend for themselves.
It’s not a big surprise that the general population has mostly been served by Myanmar’s voluntary sector. Over decades of negligent military rule, independent groups of volunteers have provided social services that would be entrusted to the state in many other countries. However, the current junta has persecuted and constrained these groups ever since they rushed to the aid of injured protesters after the coup.
Groups that run on private donations have also seen their budgets shrink in tandem with the economy. Some of them channel foreign aid, particularly from the West, but President Donald Trump’s gutting of the United States Agency for International Development means there’s much less money to go around. Although countries such as China and Russia have provided substantial earthquake relief, it has mostly been channeled through the junta and is therefore subject to its whims with minimal transparency.
There is also a diminishing number of skilled young volunteers, who would normally do the heavy lifting in times of crisis. Since the coup, hundreds of thousands of them have left Myanmar to work abroad, and more recently to avoid the military’s conscription drive. Others have joined the ranks of armed resistance groups, or gone to assist communities in resistance-held territory, making it dangerous for them to travel to junta-controlled areas, where most of the earthquake damage appears to be concentrated.
In addition, many volunteer groups choose to remain small and low-profile to stay under the radar of the military, which has a long record of blocking aid. While a prudent measure, aid workers say it contributes to a fragmented relief effort with inevitable gaps and duplication. This is in stark contrast to the COVID-19 response before the coup, when thousands of volunteers joined hands with the elected National League for Democracy government to contain infections. Illegitimate junta rule makes such a state-society pact impossible.
Notwithstanding these conditions, aid workers told Frontier they’ve so far succeeded in reaching communities in need. They say the junta is in disarray and too disorganised to impose sweeping restrictions. But with months of recovery work ahead, the regime will likely try to assert greater control. Ominously, it already seems to be laying down new reporting rules for aid groups. Global media scrutiny will also soon fade, placing more responsibility on foreign donor countries to ensure their aid gets to the people who need it most.
This editorial is an abridged version of the latest edition of Political Insider, a fortnightly political analysis newsletter exclusively for Frontier members. Become a member here so you don’t miss out.
