As fighting spreads to southern Rakhine, thousands have fled for neighbouring Ayeyarwady, where they’ve had a frosty reception as the junta tightens security in one of its few remaining stable strongholds.
By FRONTIER
Daw Htwe Zan fled the war with her two young daughters, hoping to take refuge with a friend, but instead found herself shunted off to a rundown rental house.
“I don’t want to blame them because it’s not their fault; it’s because of the administration team in their village,” she told Frontier.
Htwe Zan is one of thousands who have fled southern Rakhine State, which has been engulfed by war in recent months, for neighbouring Ayeyarwady Region, one of the most stable parts of the country.
“When my friend took us to the office to register as instructed, [the authorities] didn’t want to allow us. They said it’s difficult for them to accept number 11,” she said, a reference to ID cards issued in Rakhine. “Also, they threateningly asked my friend whether she would take full responsibility for her guests.”
After paying some tea money, the administration relented. But her friend was spooked and Htwe Zan no longer felt welcome, so they moved to a house in Kyonpyaw town. Htwe Zan estimated that about two-thirds of her village in Gwa Township have fled into Ayeyarwady since August, leaving behind those who couldn’t afford to move.
“Due to the lack of mobile networks, we can’t contact our remaining relatives in the village. Some people also fled into Gwa town, but most came to Ayeyarwady Region because the fighting could reach Gwa at any time,” she said.
Fighting has surged in Rakhine since November last year, when an informal ceasefire between the Arakan Army and the military broke down yet again. But this phase of the conflict has been more intense than ever. The AA has expelled the regime from huge swathes of the state, as the junta struggles to contain escalating conflict across the country.
The AA has even moved into the south, where it previously had little presence, capturing Thandwe and Kyeintali towns. In the past, these areas were strongholds of the National League for Democracy, overthrown in the 2021 military coup. The NLD, which for decades advocated for nonviolent resistance against military rule, had an antagonistic relationship with the AA.
But Ko Kyaw Thar*, who fled the fighting in Kyeintali, said the coup changed the political dynamics in the south. “When the protests turned to armed revolution, most of us started supporting the AA,” he explained.
This southern push has left the Rakhine ethnic armed group at the doorstep of Ayeyarwady – but not everybody is happy about it. The regime’s harsh treatment of displaced Rakhine civilians is in line with its long history of collective punishment. But ordinary Ayeyarwady locals also worry that the influx could bring conflict, and distrust the AA, which has been dogged by allegations of serious human rights abuses against other ethnic groups.
Blockades and price gouging
Ko Myo Kyaw*, a member of a Gwa-based volunteer team helping displaced people, said the military is now setting up defensive positions in Gwa town and the surrounding villages.
“The wealthier families have already fled for Yangon. But middle class people are relocating to towns in Ayeyarwady,” he explained. “The poor residents can’t go anywhere.”
Those who didn’t flee before September would now find it difficult to leave even if they could afford it.
“Since the first week of September, the junta cut transportation even between villages. We are struggling very much to provide enough food; there are some who are even facing starvation because the junta won’t allow them to import rice,” Myo Kyaw said.
The military has long used blockades to try to prevent essential items from falling into enemy hands, but the tactic has an outsized effect on the civilian population. Residents said the regime is strictly controlling the flow of food and medicine from Ayeyarwady to Rakhine via the only major road.
A trucker, who takes passengers and goods on this route from Gwa to Kyonpyaw and back, said that the regime has banned the transportation of medicine and restricted rice.
“Medicine has been banned completely for a long time, but until this month residents could take as much rice as they wanted. Now, though, the soldiers at the checkpoints only allow 5-10 pyi per person [10.6-21.2 kilogrammes] and on some days they don’t allow any rice at all.”
Soldiers at the checkpoint also strictly examine the human cargo.
“We don’t dare carry anybody who doesn’t have a citizenship scrutiny card because they immediately arrest them,” he said, referring to Myanmar’s main citizenship document. “Sometimes, they even demand money from the bus drivers carrying them.”
Rohingya fleeing Rakhine have long been subjected to even more stringent restrictions on their freedom of movement. Their living conditions in the state have been described as apartheid by major human rights organisations, while prominent Rakhine nationalists have sought to paint them as terrorists and expel them from the country.
When the stateless Rohingya have sought to flee this persecution, and occasional violence, their long perilous journey often comes to an abrupt halt in Ayeyarwady, where locals call security forces to inform on them, leading to immigration charges and imprisonment.
Now, volunteers estimate tens of thousands of ethnic Rakhine are fleeing this way as well. Most internally displaced people who spoke to Frontier said they have settled in Kyonpyaw, Yegyi Kyangin or Pathein towns, because they fear Ngathaingchaung town, close to the border with Rakhine, would be the first affected if war spreads to Ayeyarwady.
“The people who fled to Gwa because of the war in Thandwe had to flee again when the clashes reached Gwa,” said Htwe Zan. “We don’t want to experience that.”
The arrival of Rakhine IDPs has changed the economic landscape of the small and quiet town of Kyonpyaw, with hundreds now desperate to rent houses there, driving up prices.
“In the past, you wouldn’t get K100,000 [about US$20 at the market place] to rent your house,” said Kyaw Thar from Kyeintali, who is now a real estate broker in Kyonpyaw. “But now the rent fees are between K300,000 and K500,000.”
Pro-democracy armed groups operating in Ayeyarwady have warned the public against taking advantage of IDPs, but have little ability to enforce their demands. Meanwhile, home owners say they are under intense scrutiny from junta authorities, and must charge more for rent to be worth the risk.
“Landlords are afraid that the house will be foreclosed upon if they are found to be renting to someone who is related to the AA,” said Kyaw Thar, adding that most home owners won’t rent to young men.
Under scrutiny
While painting the entire population with one brush is inherently unfair, it would be little surprise if the AA did have some presence in Ayeyarwady. The group operates in other neighbouring areas, like Chin State and Magway Region, and has been reported fighting in places as far flung as northern Shan State and Kawlin Township in Sagaing Region.
In an apparent effort to preempt AA infiltration, the regime’s ward and village administration teams are carrying out surprise household list inspections.
“As soon as they see someone who is not on the guest list, they don’t ask any more questions. They drag them into the ward office. If they have more doubts, they send them to the Kyonpyaw-based Light Infantry Battalion 36, where they are interrogated,” Kyaw Thar said.
He said even those who are innocent need to pay large bribes to be released, and those who are found to be connected to the AA will be held in detention. The regime has also changed its inspection policies in the regional capital Pathein, seemingly in an attempt to prevent bribery or favouritism.
“They rotate the places each team checks. For example, the team from ward 5 will do a surprise visit and inspect the houses in ward 9, and vice versa,” a resident explained. “The residents feel more worried when unfamiliar authorities knock on their door at night.”
The resident said ward administration teams are often joined by soldiers or intimidating strangers they described as “gangsters”.
Village administrators are also on high alert, although residents say most Rakhine IDPs are settling in the towns. In Danubyu Township, which neighbours Kyonpyaw, a village tract administrator said soldiers from the LIB 108 regularly conduct inspections in the villages.
“They instruct us to inform them right away if an ethnic Rakhine person arrives in the village. We would do so, but no one from Rakhine has come to my village so far,” he said.
But the soldier visits are still uncomfortable.
“Once they arrive, we have to treat them with food and drinks and prepare presents including money. We don’t want them in our village, because everyone here wants to live peacefully. Therefore, some villagers pay money just to appease them,” he said.
All quiet in Ayeyarwady
The regime may be particularly wary of the AA infiltrating Ayeyarwady, because the region is one of the few peaceful areas still under its control. Elsewhere, the military is under fire from a kaleidoscope of longstanding ethnic armed groups and more recently formed People’s Defence Forces loyal to the National Unity Government, a parallel administration appointed by elected lawmakers deposed in the coup.
A PDF officer from the NUG’s Ayeyarwady Regional Military Command told Frontier it’s difficult to wage an insurgency in the region because of the geography. The flat, exposed muddy plains of the river delta are far from the rugged mountains and forests from where other resistance groups have launched guerrilla insurgencies.
“Those who talk bad about Ayeyarwady probably don’t really know the people of Ayeyarwady,” said the PDF officer, who claimed many young men from Ayeyarwady are fighting in resistance groups operating elsewhere in the country.
Despite the lack of armed resistance locally, many residents say they still support the general movement against the junta. However, it’s unclear how many of them would actually welcome the AA bringing war to the region.
A student at Maubin University said local views are split “50/50”, but personally he would welcome the AA.
“Although Ayeyarwady may look peaceful from the outside, people here are living every day in fear. We might be summoned for conscription, or arrested based on allegations from dalans,” he said, referring to military informants. “People are giving their money to the junta just to buy their peace. Many are unhappy with this situation.”
“It would be a good thing if the fire of war burns quickly and ends quickly,” he said.
But not everyone feels that way. A 52-year-old woman in Danubyu Township, who regularly donates money to the resistance, said it’s fine for the PDF to have an alliance with the AA, but she wouldn’t be happy if the Rakhine group came into Ayeyarwady.
“The AA is Rakhine nationalist and they always talk about the ‘way of Rakhita’,” she said, referring to a slogan of Rakhine self-determination. “In my view, they put the interests of Rakhine people over others.”
She referenced reports that the AA has committed human rights abuses against Chin and Rohingya civilians. “If they seize towns in our region, we will definitely experience discrimination like that,” she predicted.
But she still said the people of Ayeyarwady should welcome and care for Rakhine IDPs fleeing into their region for safety. Another source – a goldsmith in his 30s in Maubin Township – was less charitable.
He said the influx of displaced people was a “burden” and the subsequent tightened security in the region puts locals at more risk.
“I think the AA is only good to their ethnic group and if the AA is infiltrating with the IDPs, it won’t be good for our region,” he said. “If they start fighting here, things will be more difficult than ever and we will be treated as lower class citizens than the Rakhine.”
The PDF officer said they already have a relationship with the AA, which he declined to elaborate on, and urged Ayeyarwady residents to welcome them.
“I think there are more people who are waiting for [the AA’s] help than those who are worried,” he said. “I respect and acknowledge the success of the AA and I want to imitate what they have done for their people.”
*indicates the use of a pseudonym for security reasons
Correction: An earlier version of this article incorrectly said ID cards issued in Rakhine State all bear the number 12, rather than 11.
