The results of the November election finally convinced the Tatmadaw chief he will never become president under the rules of the constitution, so he opted for force instead.
The involvement of the Kayin State Border Guard Force in the dodgy Shwe Kokko project has triggered a showdown with the Tatmadaw and fears of a return to war.
With the Tatmadaw chief reaching retirement age this year, some speculate that a fresh face could achieve a détente with the NLD – but the appointment process itself could hold the key to better civil-military relations.
A lull in fighting in Rakhine State should not be mistaken for a free and fair election environment, but the efforts of Japanese envoy Yohei Sasakawa towards supplementary elections may deliver other benefits.
